EU customers have inventory and keep waiting for better prices in March and April.
After Christmas and New Year holidays, EU customers are extremely calm.Only W240 is traded at the price of 4.05-4.15 USD / lb FOB, while other grades are reduced due to low demand. Customers don’t need to buy large quantities immediately due to the inventory.
Chinese buyers are still buying small quantities without any fever for W320.
Customers have demand for March shipment but want to wait as they think price will go down because a lot of raw cashew nut is coming from Cambodia, Vietnamese new crop, Africa new crop... and also Tanzanian is under pressure to sell their raw cashew nut.
Exporters hope that with very low stock cashew kernels inventories in January and February, and every processors will reduce production, TET holidays ... prices of cashew kernels may be stable in January and February.
Raw cashew nut market
Inventory of raw cashew nut in shell is low in bonded warehouses. However, due to falling prices of cashew kernels, Vietnamese factories offered to buy lower compared to last 10-15 days. They are afraid that Cambodia and Vietnam are about to enter the new season and Vietnam will take a long lunar new year holiday, so they accept to sell at low prices to collect money and accept big losses. Some successful deals: Nigeria 44-45 lbs for $ 1,200-1,280 at bonded warehouses. Ivory Coast plus about 100-120 USD for each ton at the same out-turn.
Cambodia new crop
This year is about 30 days earlier than usual, currently harvesting. According to the assessment of some Cambodian cashew traders, this year Cambodia has a very good harvest, plus the amount of new cashew growing for harvesting, the total output will increase a lot when compared to 2018. Currently, the price of fresh cashew nut in shell is at 37,000. VND / kg at border gate and very good quality.
Tanzanian government ended the sales trip in Vietnam. The price they want 1,800-1,850 USD / CNF Vietnam for out-turn 52 lbs has not been accepted by the Vietnamese importers. Vietnamese importers give the rate to buy around USD 1650 CFR as they also see cashew kernels is going down, if at USD 1800 they will lead loss.Tanzania tried to impose crude cashew prices on the world market, but with their small production compared to the world's total raw cashew production, they failed. Now they need to export 220,000-250,000 tons (after deducting the domestic production).
West Africa's raw cashew nut
This year is a little earlier than last year, in general it is the good season because there is no element of instability in the weather. Production will certainly increase more than in 2018 because West Africa continues to grow more cashew trees.The price of West Africa's raw cashew is under negotiation around USD 1450 for out-turn 48 lbs Ivory Cote.